The "mathematical recipes" to win at the casino

People pay up to $ 300 on the internet to have them, but many do not know if they are true or myth. An expert from the UBA explained to what should be believed

Roulette, blackjack, poker, slots and even bingo have been inspiring of many investigations in mathematics all intended for the same purpose: to defeat (or prevent beating) the? Banking? or casino and achieve with little effort a certain fortune, even if it is not of considerable size.

To the? Solutions? arisen from such studies they are known as? martingale ?, which means? cunning or ruse ?. They use the Probability Theory to refer to certain stochastic processes – that is, statistical or random, arbitrary.

? When we talk about martingale, in general, we mean a betting strategy, almost always linked to a roulette wheel ?, he explained to, Juan Lucas Bali, Bachelor of Computer Science from the UBA and next to his degree in Mathematics in the same house of studies.

Some martingale are tens of years old, others propose renewed formulas. The truth is that there are currently those who sell them for up to $ 300 online , and who buys them, always with the illusion that such investment can change their economic destiny? Magically ?.

Bet color

The most widespread game strategy is called? Classic martingale? and proposes to start betting 1 peso and, each time it is lost, double the bet in order to recover the lost money.

Bali exemplified a possible? Progression ?:

– 1st. ball : $ 1 is played red, black comes out and is lost.

– 2nd. ball : $ 2 is played red, black comes out and is lost.

– 3rd. ball : $ 4 is played red, black comes out and is lost.

– 4th. ball : $ 8 is played red, black comes out again and is lost.

– 5th. ball : $ 16 is played red. It comes out red. The $ 16 plus another $ 16 from the bank are recovered.

How much is my net profit? Add the losses: 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 = 15. Winnings we have only in the last ball, of $ 16. So, the net profit after this streak is $ 1 . And it will always be that way, regardless of the length of an adverse streak always, at the end of it, I will recover the lost money and also receive an extra weight ?, Bali said.

? It is the perfect strategy !, doubling the bets before the losses I will always recover the money played plus an additional weight ?, he considered but at the same time he observed:? Why are we not all then playing roulette with this ??.

Is that, according to Bali, is there a minor detail? and is it? our pocket: we don’t have an unlimited amount of money ?. For example, if you enter the casino with a fixed capital of $ 100, you can only resist an adverse run of 4 balls and a fifth in favor. What would have happened if the fifth ball had been adverse?

The $ 31 would have been lost so far. Following the strategy, we bet now $ 32, and a black ball comes out again. We lose. And there we will realize a problem: we don’t have $ 64. We have lost $ 65, we subtract $ 35 nothing more. We cannot then continue with the strategy, so – here – all the previous money, supposedly? Inverted ?, is really lost ?, he warns.

In short, according to Bali, if you have bad luck? from? a very long adverse streak, it will turn out that I will not have more money to continue doubling the bet ?. The question is? How much bad luck do you have to make the adverse streak so long?

If the roulette were a fair game (where the probability of a color is 50%) the probability – of such a long run – would be exactly 1.5625%. Of 64 progressions, we expect then only a catastrophic progression, in the rest we will be gaining a weight ?, stressed the expert.

That is, the probability of losing is low compared to the probability of winning ( 1/64 versus 63/64 in the example ). But now, let’s see what we are putting into play. If we win, we receive $ 1. If we lose, we don’t lose $ 1, we lose $ 65 !? said Bali.

? At this point I hope that the flaw of this strategy is clear: with very high probability we will receive a marginal gain, with a small probability, but that is not zero (and that is the crucial thing), we will lose a fortune ,? he said and assured that this It is not due to the particular strategy, but what is interesting is that any strategy will ultimately lead to ruin.

Play full

There are two important variants of roulette, the European and the American, which in addition to numbers from 0 to 36, includes 00.? The existence of these numbers (0 and eventually 00) are those that basically generate that margin of Usefulness for the casino and also those that make roulette a game? unfair? . That is, a game where you pay less than you should ?, he said.

? What happens if instead of playing a color we play a full, that is to say a number? The chances of winning will be 1/37, approximately 2.7% . In that case, we will win 35 times the bet (plus the initial weight) and in the rest of the cases we will lose the bet ?, Bali said.

If you think about a lot of plays, for example, 10,000, what Bali says will probably happen is that ? 2.7% of the time I will win, that is 270 times, where I will get a net profit of $ 36 each time. In the remaining 9,730 times will I have lost my weight ?

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